Dated Brent crude surged to a record $144 per barrel as transit through the Strait of Hormuz dwindled to a trickle. The gap between physical and futures markets widened dramatically, with June Brent futures trading at just $96.51—a disconnect signaling acute supply shortages.

Morgan Stanley's Martijn Rats noted the divergence reflects a critical distinction: while futures track financial contracts, Dated Brent prices reflect the scarcity of actual, ship-ready barrels. Andrejka Bernatova, CEO of Dynamix Corporation III, warned the $144 print isn’t an anomaly but a harbinger. 'The physical market is screaming scarcity,' she said. 'Until Hormuz flows resume, this is the new reality.'

The strait, typically handling 120-140 daily vessel transits, has seen traffic collapse since February 28. With 20% of global oil shipments frozen, the supply crunch may intensify before relief arrives.